Actually, these hypotheses about the probability of life existing elsewhere in the universe have been going about it using the wrong assumptions. They assume that the elements and conditions of today's world or conditions near those of today's world are necessary for life to exist. My readings on this matter have revealed to me that life is not the exception but the rule around the universe. The answer is "We are not alone!" Of course, that doesn't mean we will not have trouble finding life elsewhere but, given sufficient time and resources, we will.
We will eventually discover that there has been life on Mars, I can safely say this because of the fact that scientists have found that the conditions for the existence of extremophiles has existed there for almost a billion years, more than enough time to get things started. Because of the way the universe works, if it is possible it is a certainty. Intelligent life will be somewhat rarer but, it will be found to exist, although not always in the ways we expect or hope to find it.
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