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Saturday, May 25, 2013

Survivorship Bias by David McRaney

The Misconception: You should study the successful if you wish to become successful.
The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.
In New York City, in an apartment a few streets away from the center of Harlem, above trees reaching out over sidewalks and dogs pulling at leashes and conversations cut short to avoid parking tickets, a group of professional thinkers once gathered and completed equations that would both snuff and spare several hundred thousand human lives.

People walking by the apartment at the time had no idea that four stories above them some of the most important work in applied mathematics was tilting the scales of a global conflict as secret agents of the United States armed forces, arithmetical soldiers, engaged in statistical combat. Nor could people today know as they open umbrellas and twist heels on cigarettes, that nearby, in an apartment overlooking Morningside Heights, one of these soldiers once effortlessly prevented the United States military from doing something incredibly stupid, something that could have changed the flags now flying in capitals around the world had he not caught it, something you do every day.

These masters of math moved their families across the country, some across an ocean, so they could work together. As they unpacked, the theaters in their new hometown replaced posters for Citizen Kane with those for Casablanca, and the newspapers they unwrapped from photo frames and plates featured stories still unravelling the events at Pearl Harbor. Many still held positions at universities. Others left those sorts of jobs to think deeply in one of the many groups that worked for the armed forces, free of any other obligations aside from checking in on their families at night and feeding their brains during the day. All paused their careers and rushed to enlist so that they help to crush Hitler, not with guns and brawn, but with integers and exponents.

The official name for the people inside the apartment was the Statistical Research Group, a cabal of geniuses assembled at the request of the White House and made up of people who would go on to compete for and win Nobel Prizes. The SRG was an extension of Columbia University, and they dealt mainly with statistical analysis. Other groups with different specialities were tied to Harvard, Princeton, Brown and others, 11 in all, each a leaf at the end of a new branch of the government created to help defeat the Axis – the Department of War Math.

Actually…no. They were never officially known by such a deliciously sexy title. They were instead called the Applied Mathematics Panel, but they operated as if they were a department of war math.
The Department, ahem, the Panel, was created because the United States needed help. A surge of new technology had flooded into daily life, and the same wonders that years earlier drove ticket sales to the World’s Fair were now cracking open cities. Numbers and variables now massed into scenarios far too complex to solve with maps and binoculars. The military realized it faced problems that no soldier had ever confronted. No best practices yet existed for things like rockets and radar stations and aircraft carriers. The most advanced computational devices available were clunky experiments made of telephone switches or vacuum tubes. A calculator still looked like the mutant child of an old-fashioned cash register and a mechanical typewriter. If you wanted solutions to the newly unfathomable problems of modern combat you needed powerful number crunchers, and in 1941 the world’s most powerful number crunchers ran on toast and coffee and wore ties to breakfast.
Here is how it worked:  READ MORE

Friday, May 17, 2013

Pioneer in DNA testing quits Medical Examiner's Office over lab violations

Theresa Caragine stepped down in April after it was revealed she had overruled staff under her supervision and failed to turn the conflicts over to a third party. Now the door has been opened for some criminal cases to be contested for use of potentially faulty test results.

Updated: Thursday, May 16, 2013, 10:17 AM
A top deputy at the medical examiner’s office who has been lauded for her work in DNA testing resigned amid revelations that she sidestepped lab protocol in at least two criminal cases, the Daily News has learned.

The abrupt April 19 departure of Theresa Caragine is the latest snafu to befall the office and has already affected ongoing cases in the Bronx and Brooklyn, according to court papers.

Hundreds of rape cases the office examined were already under review due to potentially botched testing by lab tech Serrita Mitchell, 55, who resigned but later denied wrongdoing.

That scandal also led to the suspension of Mecki Prinz, the office’s forensic biology director. Prinz, 55, resigned May 3.

The latest debacle has opened the door for defense lawyers to question DNA evidence in several cases.

Caragine’s actions came to light because Legal Aid Society lawyers have been digging for details about her resignation and complex DNA testing she oversaw, said Alan Gardner, head of Legal Aid’s DNA unit.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

FROM THE DEATH PENALTY INFORMATION CENTER (DPIC)

The Clustering of the Death Penalty

INTRODUCTION
Although the death penalty continues to exist in 32 states, it is actually carried out by only a small percentage of jurisdictions.  For example, in 2012 only 9 states carried out an execution.  Since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976 through to April 2013, almost 82% of the executions have been in the South. Even within a state, the death penalty is usually only practiced in a handful of counties, though the expense is often shared by all taxpayers.
The Death Penalty Information Center has analyzed the use of the death penalty on a county basis, examining:
A. Executions By County
B. Death Row Inmates By County
C. Recent Death Sentences By County

The charts on this and related pages illustrate the geographical disparities in the use of the death penalty.

A. Executions by County

Total Number of Counties in the U.S. = 3,148 (source: U.S. Census Bureau)
Execution numbers accurate as of Jan. 1, 2013
These 15 counties accounted for 30% of the executions in the U.S. since 1976.  They represent less than 1% of the total number of counties in the country, and less than 1% of the total number of counties in states with the death penalty.

 

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The Pentagon and Slave Labor in U.S. Prisons

Prisoners earning 23 cents an hour in U.S. federal prisons are manufacturing high-tech electronic components for Patriot Advanced Capability 3 missiles, launchers for TOW (Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided) anti-tank missiles, and other guided missile systems. A March article by journalist and financial researcher Justin Rohrlich of World in Review is worth a closer look at the full implications of this ominous development. (minyanville.com)

The expanding use of prison industries, which pay slave wages, as a way to increase profits for giant military corporations, is a frontal attack on the rights of all workers.
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Prison labor — with no union protection, overtime pay, vacation days, pensions, benefits, health and safety protection, or Social Security withholding — also makes complex components for McDonnell Douglas/Boeing’s F-15 fighter aircraft, the General Dynamics/Lockheed Martin F-16, and Bell/Textron’s Cobra helicopter. Prison labor produces night-vision goggles, body armor, camouflage uniforms, radio and communication devices, and lighting systems and components for 30-mm to 300-mm battleship anti-aircraft guns, along with land mine sweepers and electro-optical equipment for the BAE Systems Bradley Fighting Vehicle’s laser rangefinder. Prisoners recycle toxic electronic equipment and overhaul military vehicles.

Labor in federal prisons is contracted out by UNICOR, previously known as Federal Prison Industries, a quasi-public, for-profit corporation run by the Bureau of Prisons. In 14 prison factories, more than 3,000 prisoners manufacture electronic equipment for land, sea and airborne communication. UNICOR is now the U.S. government’s 39th largest contractor, with 110 factories at 79 federal penitentiaries.   READ MORE

Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Gun lovers download printable gun 50,000 times on its first day — and NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly is alarmed

Untraceable gun alarms lawmakers and law enforcers. 'The Liberator' can be sneaked onto planes.

By AND / NEW YORK DAILY NEWS The first downloadable gun has gone viral.

The plastic firearm that can be churned out on a 3-D printer and easily assembled was downloaded at least 50,000 times Monday, according to the self-described anarchist who made it available for free online.

Cody Wilson of Defense Distributed, a collective of gun advocates, said the most downloads were done in Spain followed by the United States.

The prospect of terrorists getting hold of the guns by clicking a computer mouse chilled NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly to the core.

“It’s something that obviously is a concern,” Kelly said. “It’s something that the federal government should look at.”

Rep. Steve Israel (D-L.I.) is writing legislation to tighten the reins on the printable guns.

Kelly’s biggest fear is that the gun — called the “Liberator” — will easily sneak past metal detectors and then onto commercial airplanes and into secure buildings.

“If that capability exists anywhere it can exist all over the country,” Kelly said.

But Cody didn’t seem to care.  READ MORE